Estimated Value of Service Reliability for Electric Utility Customers in the United States
Michael J. Sullivan, PhD, Matthew M. Mercurio, PhD and Josh Schellenberg Sullivan co-authored this paper for the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability at Lawrence Berkeley National Labs.  The paper analyzes the results from 28 customer value of service reliability studies conducted by 10 major US electric utilities over the 16 year period from 1989 to 2005. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-database describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. A two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the US for industrial, commercial, and residential customers.

To download this publication, please go to http://certs.lbl.gov/certs-rtina-pubs.html

A National Assessment of Demand Response Potential Freeman, Sullivan & Co. (FSC), The Brattle Group (TBG), and Global Energy Partners (GEP) developed the first nationwide, bottom-up study of demand response (DR) potential using a state-by-state approach. The report provides, for the first time, estimates of demand response potential for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Estimates of demand response potential are provided for several customer segments and scenarios that vary with respect to the penetration of technologies, such as Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and programmable thermostats, dynamic pricing and other DR programs. FSC was the lead contractor on development of the DR potential model and also developed state and customer-segment level load shapes that were used as starting points for estimating demand response. Some highlights from the study include:

• The current DR resources in the U.S. amount to 38 GW by 2019, or 4% of the U.S. system peak.
• Based on existing technology and infrastructure plans, DR potential could be expanded up to 82 GW by 2019, the equivalent of reducing 9%of the projected U.S. system peak.
• With full deployment of AMI, enabling the adoption of dynamic tariffs, DR potential could be expanded to 138 GW by 2019, the equivalent of reducing 14% of projected U.S. system peak.
• DR potential estimates for each state and the District of Columbia were developed as part of the study.
• The study led to the development of an internally consistent, state-by-state database containing all inputs needed to do a bottom-up estimate of demand response potential.
• Historical hourly usage data from twenty-one states was used to develop hourly load shapes for four customer classes for each state.
• The report synthesizes elasticities and impact estimates from 15 dynamic pricing pilots in order to produce dynamic pricing impact estimates for each state that take into account differences in central air conditioning (CAC) saturation for residential customers, climate, and the effect of enabling technology.

2008 Ex-Post Load Impact Evaluation for Pacific Gas & Electric Company's SmartRate^TM Tariff (PDF)
FSC recently completed a load impact analysis of PG&E's SmartRate tariff, a voluntary, opt-in critical peak pricing tariff.  The SmartRate tariff charges much higher prices during the peak period on up to 15 SmartDays during the summer in return for lower prices over a four month period from June through September.  Prices vary by time of day only on SmartDays.  During the summer of 2008, roughly 10,000 customers signed up for SmartRate, based on a marketing campaign that relied primarily on a single direct mail promotional piece.  There were nine SmartDays during the summer of 2008.  In 2008, SmartRate was only offered in PG&E's Bakersfield region, where advanced meters had been installed.  Air conditioning saturation is very high in the Bakersfield area.  Among the key findings are:

• The average reduction for residential customers across the 9 SmartDays was 16.6%
• Average response was higher on the third day of each of three multi-day events than on the first day
• Customers that qualified for the California Alternative Rates for Energy program, a low income program, signed up at much higher rates than did non-CARE customers but responded less.  The average reduction for CARE customers was still a very respectable 11% and the average reduction for non-CARE customers was a quite impressive 22.6%
• Almost 55% of notified customers provided load reductions that exceeded 10% of peak period energy use on SmartDays and almost 40% of notified customers provided load reductions exceeding 20% of peak period energy use

There are many more detailed findings in the report.

Behavioral Assumptions Underlying Energy Efficiency Programs for Businesses (PDF)
Michael J. Sullivan, Ph.D. made this presentation for the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment to describe the behavioral assumptions underlying utility sponsored energy efficiency programs offered to businesses in California.  It describes how assumptions about business decision making (that are built into the design of these programs) can affect the ability of these programs to foster increased investment in energy efficient technology. Challenges to the program design and evaluation community are identified, and recommendations are made to address these challenges.

National FETTI Conference Presentation (PDF)
LMS's Robert Giuliano was a member of a panel that made this presentation to the insurance industry titled "Reinsurance from the Ground Up" at the 14th Annual National Forum for Environmental and Toxic Tort Issues on October 4, 2007 in Chicago, Illinois.

The FSC Group named Top 100 Women-Owned Businesses in the Bay Area
The San Francisco Business Times recognized The FSC Group as one of the Top 100 Women-Owned Businesses in the Bay Area for 2007 in an awards luncheon on Sept 19.  The September 24, 2007 edition of The San Francisco Business Times includes a list of all 100 companies in a special supplement to the widely read newspaper.

Article in The Electricity Journal
The June 2007 edition of The Electricity Journal includes an important article co-authored by Freeman, Sullivan & Co.'s Senior Consultant Dan Engel.  The article, entitled "The Summer of 2006: A Milestone in the Ongoing Maturation of Demand Response", was based on research funded by US Department of Energy and conducted by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.  The article describes the qualitative work, the implications of the summer 2006 heat storms, and how Demand Response programs are viewed by key stakeholder groups, including ISO/RTOs, utilities, third party program implementers, and seasoned DR consultants.  
To view the article, please go to www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/10406190

A National Town Meeting on Demand Response
On April 24, 2007, Freeman, Sullivan & Co. Senior Consultant, Dan Engel, spoke in one of several Roundtable Panel discussions at the Fourth National Town Meeting on Demand Response in Washington, D.C.  Along with nationally recognized leaders in DR market research and evaluation, Dan discussed "What's New and What's Needed" in demand response research.  
For more information, please see www.demandresponsetownmeeting.com/speakers

The Coverage Position Letter (PDF)
An insurance article written by Liability Management Systems’ Donald Huffer in the May 2007 edition of Claims magazine discusses how clear, well-written communication between the insurer and the insured is essential to skillful claims management.  

Don also has a recent publication, Choosing a Claims Consultant (PDF), which discusses the factors and characteristics in choosing the correct claims consultant for the situation.  

Nexus Energy Software Client Conference, "Enabling The 21st Century Utility," March 28, 2007 in Scottsdale, Arizona (PDF)
Stephen George, Ph.D. explains the various tools that competitive and productive utilities will be using in the 21st century.  Most important among them is Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and complementary technology that help control loads. Other important elements include innovative pricing to make the technology attractive to the customer and information services to optimize energy use.

Western Power Supply Forum (PDF)
Stephen George, Ph.D. made this presentation to the Western Power Supply Forum on the importance of Demand Response pricing strategies in California, and how utilities and public agencies are taking steps to implement DR issues into energy agendas all throughout the state.

Demand Response Program Design Preferences of Large Customers: Focus Group Results from Four States (PDF)
Dan Engel co-authored the findings that indicate industrial and commercial electric customers want tailored participation in Demand Response programs which reflects the technical and operational needs of their businesses.  This article illustrates that if DR sponsors offer customers more flexible DR programs, this offer could expand participation and increase the benefits of DR to more consumers.